연구성과
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논문부터 기술과 소프트웨어까지, 더 정확한 예측을 위한 지식과
경험을 나눕니다.
[논문] Remote efects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with efects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment
- 작성자
- 마스터관리자
- 작성일
- 조회수
- 38
Abstract:
The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a signifcant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/foods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/food over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identifed where June precipitation is signifcantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT efect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT efect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST efect has also been tested and 6 regions with signifcant SST efects were identifed in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT efect is a frst-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST efect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefy presented.
Citation:
Xue, Y., Diallo, I., Boone, A.A. et al. Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Clim Dyn (2023).
The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a signifcant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/foods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/food over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identifed where June precipitation is signifcantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT efect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT efect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST efect has also been tested and 6 regions with signifcant SST efects were identifed in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT efect is a frst-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST efect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefy presented.
Citation:
Xue, Y., Diallo, I., Boone, A.A. et al. Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment. Clim Dyn (2023).